Research Fields: Applied Macroeconomics, Economic Growth and Distribution, Inequality, Business Cycles, Climate Macroeconomics.
“Rethinking growth and inequality in the US: What is the role of measurement of GDP?” International Review of Applied Economics 35:3-4, 551-576. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2021.1892038
Abstract: Five sectors have increased their contribution to US GDP growth since 1973: professional-business services (PBS), finance, information, healthcare, and arts-entertainment. Among these, however, finance, healthcare, and PBS have questionable foundations for being regarded as final consumption of households. Contra published National Income and Product Accounts, treating expenditures on finance, healthcare, and PBS as intermediate consumption reveals a significantly different picture of US economic growth, including i) a deeper slowdown of real output growth since 1973; ii) a more moderate rise in consumption share since 1980; and iii) a sharper decline in labor share, defined as the compensation of employees over GDP since 1985. Through a measurement approach, this paper thus contributes to the literature on secular stagnation and rising inequality in the United States.
“A sectoral approach to measuring output gap: Evidence from 20 US sectors over 1948-2020.” Accepted for publication in Macroeconomic Dynamics
Abstract: The existing output gap measures for the US economy rely on aggregate data and assume a constant output gap over sectors (see Coibion et al. (2018) and Owyang et al. (2018)); however, each sector has its cycle, which does not necessarily match the business cycle (Burns and Mitchell, 1946). By modeling sectoral cycles based on their investment cycles with a non-parametric method, I estimate output gaps of 20 US sectors over 1948–2020. The weighted mean output gap indicates a persistent spare capacity in the last business cycle, pointing to insufficient stabilization policies behind secular stagnation. Phillips curve estimations with the weighted quartiles of sectoral output gaps show that the output gap of bottleneck sectors (weighted Q3) is correlated strongly with inflation over 1950–2020. Policymakers can track bottleneck sectors to mitigate inflationary pressures while supporting the sectors with negative output gaps to stabilize the output at its potential. My findings show that it is possible to produce more output by sector-level demand supporting policies without generating inflation.
“A Bayesian Open-Economy Endogenous-Growth Dynamic Stochastic Energy Macro Model for Climate Change Mitigation Policy Analysis” with Christian Schoder.
“Revisiting Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Euro Area: An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium Model” with Christian Schoder.